Barely days after the 52nd anniversary of the creation of the Bangladesh, had the state of Pakistan showed that it had not learnt any lessons by leading a violent crackdown against peaceful protestors of Balochistan.
If we try to trace the roots of this problem that why Balochistan is un-developed, why Pakistan doesn’t give them equal rights, why they don’t consider baloch people as equal as the people of other provinces of Pakistan, why they are not provided with the basic facilities, why? The state of Pakistan wants Balochistan to be a part of Pakistan but it explicitly shows baloch people that capital of the same Pakistan does not belong to them.
I found out that this problem mainly lies in the system .From the start they didn’t wanted to be with the Pakistan. You made them to be with you, and possibly make the system ungovernable under this system.
- The principle driver of the Baloch conflict is the federal design of Pakistan that is centralized and majoritarian. The centralized problem has been addressed by state in the form of 18th amendment, but continued military dominance has undermined the provincial autonomy because the de facto power players are the same as they were before 18th amendment. The decentralization strategies that are used in the ethnically different groups of State as a tool of managing conflicts is heavily influenced by the pre 18th amendment power players.
The next issue is the majoritarian federal design that offers no or very little incentives that aspires to come into power and invest in Balochistan. Balochistan is not attractive in terms of electoral politics. There are 17 seats for Balochistan in National Assembly; there is very ethnic diversity within baloch and regional tribal divisions as well. Historically, No Party in Balochistan had won more than 5 seats out of 17. Whenever, we look at the electoral map, Balochistan which makes 45% of the Pakistan’s territory. Political Party has to develop half of Pakistan to gain maximum 7 to 8 seats. In contrast, Multan, Faisalabad, Gujranwala will give you more return. This is one of the main reasons why state wide parties do not invest in Balochistan.
The civil non-representation of Baloch people is another problem that fuels their already deprived condition. From Baloch journalists in the main stream media to the high level systemic exclusion of this group from state structure, from power structure, from civil society, the issue persists. The good or bad intentions of politicians become irrelevant in this case. The systemic exclusion is so much higher that if you try to attempt on this, it will not going to give a result. . We should not judge the people; we should judge and try to change the system that doesn’t provide any incentive.
This majoritarian designs explains why from Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto to Shahbaz Sharif every PM when they bargains with military establishment, the first casualty of that is Balochistan policy. The first surrender is of Balochistan policy because Balochistan is divided into these regional and tribal conflicts and is unable to create a critical and large scale mass so the loss will be very small.
Balochistan is not only politically undeveloped but also economically. The biggest cover of these Political and systematic failures is CPEC. If we unpack CPEC, According to the Express Tribune, the total investment of CPEC in Pakistan is about $25 billion. The 70% is in energy sector, foreign direct investment. It is totally un-beneficial for Balochistan because Gawadar itself is not connected to the national grid (the energy that produces passes on through grid) and cannot be reached because there is no transmission network of Makran region. Now they are trying to make it to connect to national grid but it should be the early projects of 2013-14.
According to CPEC Secretariat, the 60% of Balochistan that is connected with national grid is supplying 1300 to 1400MW because transmission network cannot carry more power burden and the current demand is 1800-2000MW (basic demand). Since, the 40% already has no access to this power and 60% that is connected it’s not completing their needs.
The main issue is that during the ongoing conflict or insurgency you cannot deliver the mega economic project successfully .These are started in post conflict situations because instead of political reconciliation if you start these projects there will be increase militarization to protect those initiatives that will empower the insurgents and increase their propaganda. The same happened in Balochistan.
The only solution to the problem of Balochistan is its resolution by the State because if it is left on its own, it will be as problematic as Libya became after mummer Qaddafi, primarily due to the hold of strong militant groups like Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) and etc. Ultimately, the possible solution to this problem lies in the need for a strong political party and leadership.
Author is an independent researcher and can be reached at maryamw861@gmail.com