The Middle East is still considered to be one of the destabilized parts of the world which is adjusted by profound ancient, religious, political, and strategic conflicts. The hostility between Iran and Israel is one of these most profound and complicated ones as it has been burning since decades and is unlikely to die down. By the year 2025 the tension has escalated to a new level attracting international concern, culminating in fears about the regional stability and global energy markets as well as the wider implication to peace in the region. The present paper will attempt to give a descriptive report on the unfolding Iran-Israel conflict, including its source, its current state as well as what could possibly happen in future.
The origin of the Iran Israel conflict dates back to the 1979 Islamic revolution in Iran that overthrew the pro western monarchy of Iran and replaced it with an Islamic religious government presided over by Ayatolla Khomeini. Before the revolution, the relations between Iran and Israel were rather peaceful, however, the new Iranian government took the hard anti-Israel line: Iran was declared as the illegitimate state and the threat to the Islam.
Iran has over the years postured as the friend of the Palestine and an adversary to the Israeli influence in the region. The Israeli fear has been increased by Iran support of militant groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza. To this, Israel has been fighting the Iran influence through both open and secret operations especially the Iran nuclear program and the Iran military establishments in the neighboring Iran Syria.
A number of main concerns remain the source of enmity between the two states. Firstly, Israel considers a nuclear Iran as an existential threat. Even though Iran has repeatedly denied that it has any other other intention of its nuclear program other than peaceful use, Israel and other allies in the West doubt. Iran has increased the uranium enrichment in the recent years above the restrictions that were provided by the previous deal of 2015, Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which the U.S. has left in 2018 when President Trump took office. Despite restarting the negotiation process through the Biden and currently the Abrams administration, there is little trust.
Secondly, Iran has built up a vast chain of proxy forces in the Middle East, the best known of which is Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and all sorts of Shiite militias in Iraq and Syria. Tehran funds, arms and trains these, and they are used as a proxy of Iranian strategic ambitions. In its turn, Israel has made more than a hundred air strikes on Syria in order to prevent the transfer of Iranian arms to Hezbollah.
Thirdly, the war has also spilled to the online world. There have been reports that Israel also has been behind various cyber tests in Iranian nuclear facilities, such as Stuxnet virus in 2010. Iran is responding to this with cyber attacks on Israeli infrastructure and business.
Furthermore, fights are on the rise with direct and indirect confrontations increasing last year. In early 2024, an Israel attack in Syria killed a number of Iranian Revolutionary Guard commanders. Iran retaliated by firing missiles and drones on Israeli soil, some of which were shot down with the Israeli Iron Dome interceptor. In the meantime, Hezbollah, has launched more rocket attacks in southern Lebanon thus causing concerns that wider war is imminent in more than one front.
The Iran Iran conflict is not only between the two countries. It has a lot of regional and world consequences like this events that have changed the course of Arab Israeli relations is the 2020 Abraham Accords that have seen countries such as UAE and Bahrain open diplomatic relations with Israel. Saudi Arabia has proceeded slowly in its normalizing moves but concerns with the internal and regional reaction. With these projects, Iran perceives these developments as encirclement policy, which further enhances its distrust towards Israel and the west. On the other hand U.S. still takes a major part of this struggle. Washington is a close partner to Israel and has presence of its troops in the country. It also however does not want a full scale war. American administrations that followed one another have been unable to strike a balance between aiding Israel and trying to strike a deal with Iran.
Any large-scale conflict between and Iran and Israel has the chance of interfering with oil supplies worldwide, given that Straits of Hormuz, which supplies almost a fifth of world oil produces, may be used as a war zone. The volatility in energy prices has already been witnessed due to current events.
With the changing influence of the U.S. in the region, China, having joined the U.S. in the fight against terrorists in the Middle East, has intensified interactions with Russia. Ties with Iran. China is one the greatest consumers of Iranian oil, and it has entered into a long-term strategic pact with Tehran. Russia, which is already engrossed in Ukraine war even though it still exerts its power in Syria, also enjoys the relationships with Iran and Israel, and usually attempts to reconcile its interests in both nations.
The geopolitical games are caused by human tragedies. Proxy wars in Syria, Lebanon, and Gaza have cost thousands of civilian lives and displaced thousands more most of which are directly or indirectly related to the Iran-Israel rivalry. The economic toll to the two nations is also enormous. Sanctions, military expenditures as well as social instability on the one hand, and pressure to remain in states of security and fear of internal divisions on the other also burden the Iranian and Israeli economies.
It Is not clear how the Iran Israel conflict will be in the future. The prospects of action are multiple like the fact that not either is willing to risk an open war, any miscalculations, or provocations may lead to an open war. The issue of proxies and regional actors turns the situation up the notch. It is hard, but diplomacy is not off the table. Tensions can be low by confidence building measures, third party mediation and back channel talks.In the short-term, the most probable is an escalation of tensions without an open military conflict, a standoff that will manifest in minor attacks, cyber-attacks and proxy fighting.
Iran-Israel conflict is one of the most threatening hot spots of the world today. Being the conflict involving grievances of the past, ideological disagreements, nuclear phobia, and local ambitions, the scenario requires being followed closely by the international community. To achieve the more stable and prosperous future of the Middle East, Iran and Israel alongside the world powers need to find a solution to how to de-escalate and shift the focus to diplomacy in the place of destruction. It is becoming too late to talk seriously and stakes are so high.
Muhammad Hunain Fida is pursuing a Bachelor in International Relations from Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad
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