The world witnessed a significant transition from the ideological battles to battles for economic and technological supremacy particularly after the end of the Cold-War. This transition is getting highlighted day by day as we find ourselves in a neo-Cold-War where the dominance on the frontier of technology determines the future great power rather than superiority in nuclear arsenals. This is why the arms race in technology has become so crucial. Neo-Cold War arms race in emerging technologies, looking at how development in artificial intelligence, cyber-warfare, and quantum computing are influencing the balance of power among important actors in the world. The term “neo-Cold War” is used to describe the economic competition, technological rivalry, influence in the international organizations and geopolitical tension between the United States and its allies, particularly China and Russia. This turns the world into a multipolar landscape. Economic competition is important. The US and China are engaged in trade disputes, imposing tariffs and adopting protectionism showing their struggle for economic influence and control over the global market.
In contrast to this, the Cold War (1945-1991) was a geopolitical tension between the United States and its allies and the Soviet Union with its satellite states. It divided the world into two major blocks. The center of the cold war was Europe but as it proceeds, the whole world directly or indirectly became a part of this cold war. The major factors of cold war include the conflict between capitalism and communism, nuclear arms race, space race, proxy wars (e.g., Korean War and Vietnam War) and the formation of alliances like NATO and Warsaw Pact. However, the technological developments during the cold war were mainly for military purposes such as development of nuclear weapons, missile systems, and surveillance technology yet it provided a stage for further technological advancements in the field of information technology.
In the contemporary world, a new technological arms race, led by the United States, Russia, and China has begun, involving a competitive search for disruptive technologies with potentially profound military and global security implications. Therefore, the global landscape is undergoing a profound transformation due to the rise of artificial intelligence, which led to a fierce competition among nations reminiscent of an arms race unlike the traditional arms races that only focus on military power while artificial intelligence encompasses economic and technological supremacy as well as key players in this race.
The fourth industrial revolution has ushered in an era where artificial intelligence plays a vital role in shaping the global competitive landscape. Artificial intelligence becomes a driving force behind various sectors including healthcare, finance, transportation, and defense. Nations recognize that AI has potential to revolutionize various sectors making it a key driver of economic growth. The primary factors driving the AI arms race include data accumulation, development of advanced algorithms and attracting top AI talent, key players in the AI arms race. Several nations are taking part in the AI arms race with the United States and China leading the way. The race for dominance in AI has become a focal point in the new cold war. This is due to the military application of AI, which holds significant potential to support warfighters in their missions. AI can benefit the military in numerous ways including warfare systems, strategic decision making, data processing and research, combat simulation, target recognition, threat monitoring, drone swarms, cyber security, transportation, casualty care and evacuation. Warfare systems such as weapons, sensors, navigation, aviation support, and surveillance can employ AI in order to make operation more efficient and less reliant on human input. AI’s algorithms are able to collect and process data from various sources to aid in decision-making. Military training simulation software has used in the US Army for quite some time. It is essentially a virtual “war game” used to train soldiers. AI systems have the ability to predict enemy behavior, anticipate vulnerabilities, weather, and environmental conditions, assess mission strategies and suggest alleviation plans. The implications of AI in warfare raise ethical concerns, from autonomous weapon systems to the potential risk of escalation due to algorithmic decision-making.
The United States is the birthplace of AI giants like Google, Facebook and IBM has long been at the forefront of AI development. It boasts a rich ecosystem of tech companies and access to vast data resources recognizing the strategic importance of AI. China has rapidly emerged as a formidable player in the AI landscape by forming AI giants like Bayu, Alibaba and ensent. The Chinese government has launched initiatives like the new generation AI development plan to become a world leader in AI by 2030. Russia with its story history in science and technology is leveraging its expertise in AI research. The country is actively investing in AI development and has made significant strides and military AI applications. European Union is also a key player in the AI arms race. The EU focuses on the regulatory frameworks for AI, ethics and collaboration among its member states. European companies like Deep Mind are pioneering AI research and development. Countries like Canada, Israel, and South Korea have also made substantial contributions to AI research and development. They are active participants of AI arms race driving innovation and technological advancements.
In contrast to the traditional cold war, in a neo cold war, the proxy wars are likely to be fought in cyberspace. For example, Russian groups either tied to or working directly for the Kremlin were behind significant attacks such as the Solar Winds and Colonial Pipeline hacks. Cyber warfare is the use of cyber-attacks against an enemy state disrupting a crucial computer system with the help of Malware. Cyber-attacks may result in the financial loss, theft of sensitive information, disruption of business operation and impair important governmental functions. Microsoft’s Digital Defense Report cites the usual suspects (Russia, China, Iran and North Korea) as the top sources for cyber-attacks but other countries, ranging from Turkey to Brazil, are getting into the game.
Moreover, the pursuit of quantum computing capabilities has profound implications for cryptography and secure communication. As quantum computers advance, traditional encryption methods may become vulnerable, leading to a race to develop quantum resistant cryptography. Both Beijing and Washington are working on enhancing their quantum advancements. President Xi Jinping stressed the “strategic value” of quantum technology in a 2020 speech to top Chinese leaders, the official Xinhua news agency reported. In this respect, Beijing had announced $15.3 billion funds for quantum research, more than quadruple the equivalent US figure of $3.7 billion. In August, President Joe Biden signed an executive order directing the US Department of the Treasury to regulate US investments in Quantum Computing, semiconductors and artificial intelligence. He also passed an order that could ban investment in the Chinese production of quantum technologies and equipment. Therefore, it is too early to predict whether it will be China or the US that comes out on top in the quantum arms race _ or whether it will lead to a Cold War- style stalemate.
The space arms race started in the era of the original cold war. Navigation systems such as global positioning system GPS first developed for military purposes and functions as “gun sights” for weapons. Global powers have developed independent space systems to reduce any reliance on US space systems such as GPS. Russia has its GLONASS system, Chinese have BeiDou and even the European Union has developed the Galileo system. Now, the neo cold war extends into space as well, with nations vying for supremacy in satellite technologies. Satellites play a crucial role in communication, navigation, and surveillance. Satellites and other technologies are becoming increasingly important for global economic and military purposes. Their “dual use” nature means that they can be manipulated for both civil and military purposes, including as a part of anti-satellite (ASAT) capabilities. On 21 May 2024, Russia launched a COSMOS 2576 satellite, which can inspect and affect other low earth orbit satellites as claimed by the US department of space. In December 2018, President Donald Trump announced the formation of the sixth branch of the US Armed Forces_ the Space Command. While Russia has been already introduced its space force in 2015. Beijing’s rush for anti-satellite arms began 15 years ago. Now, it can threaten the orbital fleets that give the United States military its technological edge. This made space an arena of great power competition.
In addition to this, the ability to manipulate genes, develop bioweapons, or control infectious diseases due to advances in biotechnologies adds a new dimension to the neo-Cold War competition. Advances in genetics and biochemistry offer great promise in the fight against infectious diseases. However, the same increases the threat from bioterrorism. Biosecurity involves measures to prevent the misuse of biological agents (which can be fatal for humans) or technologies for harmful purposes. For example, the Chinese put allegations on the US for the formation of Corona virus while the US considered China to develop this bioweapon. This caused the exchange of hot words between both countries creating tension.
Finally yet importantly, the rivalry between the United States and China has raised concerns about a new cold war with AI being the primary battleground. This competition extends into various realms such as 5G technology, AI ethics, and international influence. Each nation aims to set the global AI agenda advocating its vision and standards. The AI arms race is not devoid of cooperation, researches, engineers, and entrepreneurs worldwide. As nations strive for technological supremacy, the international community faces the challenges of establishing norms, regulations, and ethical framework to mitigate the risks associated with emerging technologies. The dynamics of this arms race will continue to shape the geopolitical landscape, requiring careful consideration of the implications and potential consequences for the future of international relations.