Artificial intelligence is reshaping the dynamics of states interaction in international arena but not much literature is available. In past, focus was on conventional wars but with the invention of technologies like AI, things are changed. Counties which are not having much capability have equal chance now to attack adversary without using any conventional means. Countries technologically advanced, use AI to strengthen their military and weapons. It also helps to enhance their standing in international arena. However, its impacts are often overlooked. The focus is mostly on military strategy or lack empirical data, strategic studies and cyber warfare.
The complexity of international power:
International power is important for understanding how countries interact with each other in international system. Just like a game it is, where one country supposes ‘A’ influences state ‘B’ to do something. This is because of power and is necessary for the survival in international politics. Power is of different types, it can be ‘hard’, including economy, military finance or ‘soft’, including diplomacy and culture. Both types of power are crucial for a state.
Agency and Identity in technological development:
In past, the way of gaining power was to build economy and invest in military but now this is outdated. Now to gain power one should possess advanced technology and science. Countries are struggling to expand their scientific capabilities to compete. These decisions lead to a big change. If Iran has 5 bombs, it might not worry US much but if UK has 500 it would. This is based on identity and perspective. First, the endogenous nature of interaction between power and technology: Technology is woven into countries societies. It doesn’t matter how many technologies or gadgets a state has it depends on the use, how states use them to prosper and compete. Some scholars see technology a mean to get power internationally, while others see it a blend of norms, values and competition. Meaning when technologies are made there is a shift in the international balance of power.
Second, the complexity of the artificial intelligence ecosystem: Artificial intelligence is a type of technology which allow machines to grasp data and make human like decisions. AI is used in may sectors including health, business, government and military, which differentiates it from other technologies. It is difficult and a few countries can only develop. So, it also deepens gap between those who have it and who don’t. Third, Data collection and analysis: Data is collected from various sources and is divided into three groups. Firstly, data on exports, investments, diplomacy and military. Secondly, data on economic, financial, diplomatic and military power. Thirdly, data on patents, AI publications and AI-related companies. This data is used to analyze the relationships between different aspects of power, for example GDP, exports and how technology specifically AI is evolving.
Methods; first, international fitness: For understanding of states interaction and how they gain influence, network science is used. Having in mind the capability of a state to influence, it is provided a score. If a new country joins, it becomes the part of the system and gets connected to other countries. countries make links based on their fitness and opportunities, shaping the distribution of connectivity over time. A new country joining, knows that previous states have good connections, it follows power law, where the probability of a country connecting decreases as its connectivity increases. Second, multi-layer network of International Power: Multi-layer network is built to analyze international power dynamics, each layer representing a specific aspect of global relations. Layers include relations of countries based on factors like trade, diplomacy, and military interaction.
Results; International fitness, power and international system structure: Analysis revealed a center-periphery scheme across different layers. Talking about economic power countries like US and China are leading, while in financial power markets like Luxemburg and Switzerland are on the top. Diplomatic power highlights connections based on national interest. In Military layer countries are attracted towards high-tech military exports. Technology has a close relationship with international power.
To conclude, the study explores how AI interacts with international power. It is proved using scientific methods. It describes how AI has brought a paradigm shift in international arena and war dynamics. It presents both opportunities and challenges for a state.